How good are you at making probabilistic judgements? Here is an interesting example. Suppose that one out of every hundred people in the population ha
How good are you at making probabilistic judgements? Here is an interesting example. Suppose that one out of every hundred people in the population has a genetic medical condition. There is a test for this medical condition that is 99 per cent accurate. This means that if a person has the condition, the test returns a positive result with a 99 per cent probability; and if a person does not have the condition, it returns a negative result with 99 per cent probability. If a person’s test comes back positive (and you know nothing else about that person), what is the probability that s/he has the medical condition?